Researchers over at the Silph Road have uncovered a secret factor affecting Raid boss capture chance in Pokemon GO.
In a report published to the fan-made website on Thursday, July 15, Pokemon researchers at the Silph Road unveiled their findings around what makes a Pokemon GO Raid boss easier to catch.
”A small group of dedicated researchers have been investigating the mechanics of catching raid bosses for over a year, and have recorded 6,500 throws over the course of their investigation,” the post reads, ”Today we’re going to share an exciting discovery that they’ve unearthed!“
Silph Road Researchers Find Secret Raid Boss Capture Factor
According to the data collected by the team, the secret ingredient is time. The longer it takes a trainer to catch a Pokemon at the end of the Raid—typically measured in Premiere Ball throws—the more likely it is that the game will let you catch it. The team refers to this chance as the “hidden multiplier.”
As seen in the chart above, the more throws the team made in an encounter, the higher the multiplier became.
”Researchers threw Premier Balls at raid bosses and recorded everything that is known to affect catch rates (see Background above) and whether the boss was captured or not.¹ Missed throws were also recorded.“ They explained, ”A final ‘hidden’ multiplier was left as a free parameter.”
They observed that while the typical formula for catching wild Pokemon remained accurate on the first thow, something changed as the encounter dragged on. Capture rate mysteriously increased as trainers neared 5-10 throws. Using some impressive statistical math that can be found in the original post, they were then able to deduce that this wasn’t just a coincidence.
“By the 8-10th throw, it’s as if you’re throwing an Ultra Ball instead of a Premier Ball!” They wrote.
Obviously, this means that trainers are much more likely to catch a Raid boss on their later throws than their earlier ones. It may benefit them, then to wait until they hit those numbers to start spending Golden Razz Berries or making Curved Throws.
Not that trainers should be throwing away chances until it comes down to the wire, of course. It’s just nice to know that it isn’t always on the trainer when that Deoxys decides to bid them adieu.